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Mixed Bag

| October 28, 2019

Mixed Bag


With a barrage of earnings on the deck, the S&P 500 rally seems to have stalled at 3000. The unemployment claims data came in with the headline number at 212,000 new claims, which is down 6000 from the upwardly revised headline from the previous week. These numbers suggest that the employment market is on solid footing. Housing starts for September tumbled 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.256 million but the National Housing price index made a new high this year suggesting a strong housing market. The decline in the Housing Starts in September may seem too big but it followed an August Housing Starts SAAR of 1.386 million, which represented a 12-year high.


The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook shows world GDP growth slowing from 3.6% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, lowered from July’s interim projections. A 3.0% growth rate would be the slowest global growth since the 2008-2009 global economic slowdown. The key takeaway from all this news and data analysis, is whether the economic data is improving, deteriorating or stalling. According to the IMF, risks to the global growth outlook skew to the downside as trade barriers and heightened geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply chains and hamper confidence, investment and growth.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.